The halftime report on Northern Nevada's economy in 2005 is in, and did the region ever run up some numbers.
The scoreboard in the first six months of the year clicked relentlessly on several fronts, including:
Employment: Washoe County and surrounding areas grew thousands of new jobs, mostly in the retail and construction sectors, and Washoe's 3.8 percent jobless rate at mid-year was lowest in the state.
Spending: Consumers, aided by the opening of new retail outlets catering to kitchens and home improvement, helped propel monthly taxable sales by sometimes-double-digit leaps.
Housing: The median price of an existing home in Washoe County jumped 11 percent from January to June to $344,000 with little variation in time on the market, according to the Northern Nevada Regional Multiple Listing Service.
"Your numbers are just off the charts," said John Mitchell, regional economist for US Bank in Portland, Ore.
But in a Reno Gazette-Journal/News4 Business Poll in May, the percentage of respondents saying they're confident about their future economic situation dipped slightly from those responding to the same question in January.
In the Research 2000 poll conducted May 23-25 of 600 likely voters statewide, 9 percent "strongly agree" they are confident compared with 11 percent in the January poll and similar totals in polls taken in August and October 2004.
Even so, industry in Northern Nevada is prospering.
Most mining companies have reported healthy profits with the price of gold holding above $430 per ounce.
Manufacturing, too, is growing.
This spring, Interlock USA came to Reno with plans for 50 to 75 employees within two years to make parts for window and door locks serving West Coast markets.
To top it off, Inc. magazine earlier this year named Reno No. 1 in the nation in its ranking of "Best Places for Doing Business in America."
All of which impresses Mitchell.
"Even with your gaming win down, you've got enough stuff going on that you just keep growing," he said.
A brighter horizon?
Indeed, gaming revenues, especially in Washoe County, continued to flounder
against the wave of Indian gaming in the West.
But even so, Reno got a booster shot with the sale announced in April of the Reno Hilton to an investment group which plans to transform the site into the Grand Sierra Resort with the largest indoor water park in the nation.
Also this spring, Las Vegas-based Station Casinos Inc., announced it wants to build two locals-oriented resorts in the south Reno corridor.
Station's interest in the area comes as no accident, according to an analysis last month of the Reno gaming industry by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York.
The report acknowledged the area's general gaming revenue slump.
But, "We see a silver lining that likely goes unnoticed ? the segment of the market catering to local residents has exhibited strength," research analyst Marc Falcone wrote in the report. "We believe further development of new and higher-quality properties ... is in the cards."
Bill Eadington, a gaming economist at the University of Nevada, Reno, agrees.
"The locals market has a lot of exploitability left in it," Eadington said. "It's more an issue for competition than a growing market. They (Station) may end up being successful at the expense of someone else."
Retail flexes muscles
The promise of more prosperity didn't stop there.
In March, outdoors-oriented retailer Cabela's, which draws a religious-like following, unveiled plans to build a major store at Boomtown west of Reno.
In addition, ubiquitous Wal-Mart is building additional stores in Sparks, Fallon and Carson City with two more envisioned for Reno.
In May, Ohio-based DSW, a shoe retailer, opened in Reno's South Virginia Commons and a month later, Home Depot opened a store farther south off Damonte Ranch Parkway.
Nearby, Salt Lake City-based R.C. Willey is preparing to open a mammoth home furnishings center, and farther south at the Mount Rose Highway, the 70-store Summit Sierra cluster of mostly high-end, new-to-the-area retailers, is rising with opening set for next March.
"We think your climate is conducive to this kind of shopping," David Silverstein, principal of Summit Sierra developer Bayer Properties, said of the open-air complex he hopes will lure local shoppers who might otherwise go to California.
Even with all that, the region can't get too much retail at present, believes Tom Cargill, UNR economist.
"I don't see any evidence of over-saturation," he said. "I'm not surprised. All those new houses. They're not so much building (stores) to keep people here, but there's a market here not being served."
Housing: Still hot
It all points to continued prosperity, observers say, and one key factor
adding to the sizzle is the housing market.
"Numbers-wise, people are still buying almost as fast as last year," said Brian Kaiser, an analyst at the Nevada Small Business Development Center at the University of Nevada, Reno.
Much of the nation is seeing swelling housing prices amid growing concern that the bubble may soon pop. Not so in Northern Nevada.
"I honestly don't believe this is a bubble," Kaiser said of local figures that have rocketed in recent months.
"I don't see the bottom falling out. Yeah, things have gone up really fast. But I'd expect similar numbers for the rest of the year as long as interest rates stay low."
Cargill said he sees signs of a slowing housing market - but still a healthy one.
"It's kind of a breather ... but it will pass. There's no collapse of housing," he said. "I don't know in my memory of any price fall in (Reno) housing.
"No economy is bubble-proof, but there are economic fundamentals driving housing here," he said.
A steady rest of '05
Kaiser, who studies the monthly Multiple Listings reports, said he sees
no letup in the real estate surge.
"If people are having hesitations, it's not showing up in the numbers," he said.
"I've been saying for three years that this can't continue, and it does. It can't continue at this pace. There's no logic to explaining it. But I don't see the bottom falling out."
Neither does Mitchell, but he said the region's tight labor market could eventually affect overall growth.
"Put that with (rising) housing prices, and it could reduce the attractiveness to the area," he said. "But you're still lower than California in housing."
That won't stop economic development in the coming months.
Developers are preparing plans for an open-air retail center near the Sparks Marina comparable in size to the Summit Sierra.
And Pittsburgh-based PPG Industries Inc., is working with the Nevada Commission on Economic Development to build a $25 million water-based paint-manufacturing site in Storey County east of Sparks.
Cargill foresees mild moderation in the overall economy through the rest of the year.
"We're going to see interest rates go up, and it'll slow things down somewhat," he said, but added, "I doubt most people would notice it."